I stopped in at a local real estate office yesterday. They had a big sign out saying they were "foreclosure specialists" and that I could get a free foreclosure list. So I suckered on in. The agent came out, and as usual, tried to engage me in a long conversation where he wowed me with his knowledge:
"Market's down but I think its hit the bottom...its a great time to buy."
So I asked him, "How do you know its a bottom?" His answer, "Experienced guess." I responded, "Case-Shiller is showing a lot more downside." He looked at me blankly. I asked him, " Do you know what the Case-Shiller index is?" He said, "no." Hmmmm...
So I asked him what are other reasons why its a good time to buy and he responded, "rents are high and it makes more sense to own." I asked him what he based this on and he said, "just a gut feeling." I asked him if he took a rent multiplier into account....a blank stare. "Okay" I said, "how many payments do you multiply the mortgage payment by to give you an idea if its a good time to buy?" His answer, "Well, that doesn't matter much right now." Doesn't matter much right now?!? And you want me to pay you money for your expert opinion?
Well, I think we have a long way down from here (it always over-corrects too) and many of these experts will likely be serving Slurpies at Seven-Eleven by then.
Comments