Here's an amazing Santa Clarita real estate offering. This home has dropped 66% since the 2005 peak! More interesting still is the fact that it is being offered at $8,500 below its 2001 sales price. 2001 is a benchmark for where prices will fall to since that is where this last boom began.
How could they only fall to 2001 prices just because the boom began then? There were many many more houses built. By definition, when supply increases, demand goes down. There is no way that the prices can only correct to the point when the boom began.
But beyond that, the economy is damaged far more than simply the housing industry. All prices are falling right now. I expect they will go up again, but that will be the result of inflation, not a real increase in value.
Posted by: mark | November 28, 2008 at 02:54 PM
That is correct, Mark. I actually thought 2001 was an optimistic benchmark since overshoots always overcorrect.
Posted by: Garrett | November 28, 2008 at 03:09 PM